Won’t candidates taking exams in 2009 and later have a statistical advantage over tho
Won’t candidates taking exams in 2009 and later have a statistical advantage over those who took the exams earlier?
There is no fixed passing score on CFA exams. If there were fixed passing scores, all other factors equal, a reduction in the number of answer choices would likely result in more candidates passing the exams. That is not the situation. The passing score of any CFA exam is directly related to its level of difficulty as assessed by CFA charterholders in a formal standard setting process.
The CFA Institute Board of Governors establishes the minimum pass score for each exam. The board relies heavily on the widely accepted modified Angoff standard setting method in evaluating each exam. Standard setting, independently managed and directed by expert psychometricians, is a rigorous process conducted after an exam is administered. Each standard setting session brings a diverse group of approximately 30 charterholders together for 1-2 days to independently evaluate each question and judge whether a minimally qualified candidate would answer it correctly. The goal of standard setting is to recommend to the board a minimum passing score that appropriately distinguishes between those candidates that demonstrated mastery of the curriculum from those that did not. The difficulty of any question is considered by each standard setter in making his/her judgment about the expected performance of the minimally qualified candidate. Plausibility of distractors is a factor considered by standard setters regardless of the number of answer choices. This process considers any potential changes in exam difficulty that result from a reduction in the number of answer choices, and factors this in to the recommended minimum passing score. The standard setting process is an important step in maintaining consistency and fairness in evaluating candidate performance across years.
Further, it is true that for an unprepared candidate in the CFA Program, the probability of successful guessing on any single question will increase. However, the probability that such a candidate could guess correctly enough times to pass the exam is mathematically infinitesimal. This is true whether there are two, three, four or more choices. It is also at least theoretically possible that a candidate with enough knowledge and skills to achieve a reasonably high score might achieve a higher score through successful guessing on just a few questions. Again, it is important to note that there is not a fixed score that candidates need to achieve to pass a CFA exam. Standard setters evaluate the difficulty of each exam in making their minimum pass score recommendation.
It is also worth noting that each of us likely made some educated guesses on our CFA exams. That is in part a function of a rigorous exam that demands mastery of many different topics and that will remain the case. The content of the questions will not be any less rigorous with three-choice questions. The fact that guessing is mathematically better rewarded does not mean that pass rates will be higher or that unqualified candidates will pass the CFA exams. The major reasons for this are the rigor of the questions, the quality of the answer choices, and standard setting.
(CFAI)