CFA first Gathering event in 2010 - 21 August 12010

[cunconcfa]

Mời các bạn đang theo học CFA tại TP.HCM tham gia theo nội dung thư mời dưới đây:

Dear Colleague,

We would like to cordially invite you to our CFA first Gathering event in 2010 in Ho Chi Minh City on 21 August 2010. We are honored that Mr. Nguyen Xuan Thanh, Director of the Master of Public Policy Program at the Fulbright School, will conduct a presentation on "Recent macro economic developments of Vietnam and projection for the second half of 2010". We have also invited renowned industry experts for a panel discussion on "Company Analysis in Vietnam: From Theory to Practice."

Don't miss this great opportunity to network with industry practitioners, learn from a prominent macroeconomic expert and meet some of the most successful individuals in our domestic industry!

Ho Chi Minh City Event details
Date: Saturday, 21 August 2010
Agenda: 3:00-3:30pm: Registration and Reception
3:30-4:15pm: Mr. Nguyen Xuan Thanh: "Recent macro economic developments of Vietnam and projection for the second half of 2010"
4:15-4:30pm: Refreshment break
4:30-5:30pm: Panel discussion: "Company Analysis in Vietnam: From Theory to Practice" with Q&A. (Panelists include: Mr. Vo Sang Xuan Vinh, CFA - General Director at Saigon Capital; Mr. Nguyen Xuan Minh, CFA - Chief Executive Officer at Vietnam Asset Management; Mr. Le Thanh Hung, CFA - General Director at CNAV Investment Counsel)
5:30 – 7:00pm: Cocktail party
Venue: Grand Hotel - 08 Dong Khoi St., Dist 1, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Fee: Free of charge
Attire: Business Casual

Please register your place by writing to Mr. Cao Cu Chuc at ccchuc@gmail.com. Kindly note that the registration deadline is 19 August 2010. A confirmation e-mail will be sent upon receipt of your registration email. Seats are limited and will be offered on a first-come, first-served basis. Please register early to avoid disappointment.

Should you have any questions about this coming event in Ho Chi Minh City, please contact Mr. Vo Sang Xuan Vinh, CFA, at vosangxv@gmail.com.

For questions about CFAI membership, please email the CFA Institute Office in Hong Kong or call their hotline at +852-8228-8820 begin_of_the_skype_highlighting              +852-8228-8820      end_of_the_skype_highlighting.

We look forward to seeing you at the event.

Yours faithfully,

Vo Sang Xuan Vinh, CFA

 

[Silentnight]

HN chưa có event nhỉ

 

[xenonnt]

Nội dung của event hôm 21/8 do Mr. Cao Cu Chuc (ccchuc@gmail.com) note lại, mời mọi người xem:
I. VIETNAM’S RECENT MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

<forum chỉ cho up len file <200KB nên tớ ko up slides của Mr.Thành lên được, xin lỗi mọi người nha>

II. KEY FACTORS IN INVESTMENT ANALYSIS

1. Understand the business

- Financial statement & ratio analysis is a essential part of company analysis but it is just one part of analysis

- When doing analysis, understanding of value chain of the company is very important, namely input, production, output the factors that affect each stage. To do that analyst should have curious mind. Take Binh Minh plastics for example, analyst should know the production process (can find easily on internet), analyze the factors that affects

o Input materials

o Production

o Sales

à Any factor that affects one of the 3 components of value chain above might have a big impact on the business plan of the company.

2. Think independently

- Analyst might be heavily influenced from his/her supervisor and just think the way his supervisor does and this may have a negative effect on the analysis in term of independence and objectivity.

- Some analysts read the reports by other analyst, organizations and this shape his/her thinking the same way. The projection follows that pattern.

- Analysts use the assumption from object company without extensive analysis of the reasonableness of their assumption. One misleading assumption is that the production increases then sales will increase at the same level, that may increase the buyer power later and they have a better position to negotiate to reduce the selling price later.

3. Don’t take value at face value & corporate visit

- Don’t believe in the data given

- Most management can have a very excellent plan, but the execution is a completely different story.

- Meeting with management is not limited in the office but also in other occasions such as having meal or coffee outside together to understand them.

- Talking to company management is not enough, we should try to talk to the ones the company have transactions with to hear their valuation of the company:

o Bankers (the ones providing financing)

o Suppliers (payment…)

o Customers

4. Don’t fall in love with the company

- Sometimes the analyst work with the company long enough and has good relationship with some key staff of the company, then like the company and have favorable evaluation for that company.

5. Business model & structure

- Understanding business & business model is difficult,

- Analyst might be misleading by abnormal profit, core business competency and business model should be analysed instead.

- Comparative advantage should be analysed carefully. Low comparative advantage can lead to low price, low profit margin and anti-dumping duty. Pay special attention to:

o Product in relation with demographic data (age, income…)

o Product mix

o Distribution network

- Investment out of core business: this serves to strengthen the position of the management, not the ultimate interest of shareholders.

- What are the KEY drivers of the company? One value change that can lead to the change of the performance & business plan of the company.

6. Management

- Business philosophy of management is as important as its products. CEO alone can’t lead a company successfully, he/she need a good management team (sales, marketing…).

- What is management strategy for increasing comparative advantage, M&A plan …etc

7. Shareholder structure & corporate governance

- Joint stock companies go public from state-owned companies with majority shares owned by state-owned companies are not favorable target companies for investment fund because of conflict of interests.

- After each uptrend in the stock market, many companies conduct secondary offerings for the benefit of some key shareholders.

- Bonus share is misleading (should not be called like that). Private placement has been exploited recently for the interest of small group of shareholders, one trick is to ask for the approval by written proposals (one part of the shareholders can be very far from company, term of the proposal (if not return the vote by that day then it is considered approved)).

- Management may act for their own interests (corporate airplane…)

- CFA community should be gathered as a forum or a society to have a strong voice in the market, should have corporate governance guideline.

8. Financial statement analysis

- Earning quality: where the profit comes from, is there any manipulation? Where to hide. Profit structure must be analysed. The profit pattern can be achieved/maintained in the future?

- The company value mainly come from stability, not by something abnormal which is not sustainable.

- Related party transaction: in VN, many organizations like to be called groups, there are many related party transactions that can inflate earning. Pay special attention to consolidated reports which have notes as consolidated until… or there are some transactions that have not been consolidated, the problem can be in that pending issues.

- Asset quality should be evaluated also, especially inventory. Auditors might not find out. For examples the inventory from companies in Rubber, Steel, Plastics…The price of inventory is price in what period (peak or trough), if provision has been made reasonable? Are the investment is properly evaluated? Provision for investment (book value might have nothing left but no provision is made).

9. Financial modeling & projection:

- Again, understand the company business model. The sales plan must have a reasonable basis. What sales growth is based on what factors:

o Product categories

o Market share

- If company increase production, can sales increase? Higher growth rate of the industry it means that the market share of other competitors must be reduced, how many companies in the industry have to close (top down analysis). Growth rate without reasonable basis or analysis is not acceptable.

- To be a good one, analysts should make the model themselves, analyze some tenths of companies with the models (although they can be wrong: sai bét nhè) then adjustments can be made to improve the model. Until sometimes, the analyst can feel the flows of the variables of the model and the relationship between them (đạt cảnh giới cao)

- Quantitative analysis: use regression analysis, conduct tests to see the correlation of the intrinsic value with stock price, test at different times (up, down), run many times. When using the model, the discipline of the model must be strictly adhered to.

10. Valuation

- What valuation model is used basing on the source of reliable inputs. Several factors that affect the valuation method.

- In Vietnam, several companies like to use CAPM for the calculation of cost of equity, however, this approach is not suitable for a young market as in VN (10 years only), the better method is sum of the risks (different kinds of risks and the ability to absorb the risks) according to Mr. Vinh.

- For P/E & P/B methods, the comparative P/E, P/B should be the ones from a long history market as the stock market in VN is too volatile. Multiple approach can be misleading.

Speacial notes:

1. For those who have not joined the group of Vietnam Investment Professional Community (VIPC) are encouraged to join as we can share the materials, exhange the knowledge as well as information about CFA program, CFA related events at: http://groups.google.com/group/vip-vn. If you have any difficulty, please contact Mr. Ha Trung Hieu, CFA at compasscp@gmail.com
2. In the process of estblishing the Society for Vietnam CFA community, we will need to collect the information of people who have passed level 3. The more we have the easier and quicker for the preparation process. So please send to me the information and inform the ones you know.

 

[longtc]

Hôm qua có seminar của CFAI ở Hà nội nhưng mình không tham gia được. Tiếc quá. Bác nào có tài liệu (softcopy) của hội thảo hôm thứ 7 có thể share cho mình được không. Cám ơn nhiều.